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Posts by Father
It gets super fun about half way through…
From the IslandPacket.com:
Thousands of dead starfish that littered a beach near Charleston last weekend are the first signs of what might become a disastrous winter for coastal sea life. They died because water was chilled to a lethal temperature by frigid weather earlier this month.
With coastal waters already hovering near critical lows, biologists worry there might be a mass die-off of shrimp, sea trout and red drum as the season turns cold again.
William Gay, owner of Port Royal Seafood, said he has heard Beaufort crab trappers talk about dead shrimp showing up in their crab pots, but said the cold water hasn’t yet affected his business.
S.C. Department of Natural Resources biologists also heard reports of stunned red drum and sea trout.
And it’s not just the possible extension of countless species around the earth that is caused on the cold (Isn’t that how they say it when it’s warming related?)…
Atlanta, Georgia has also broken a record of green Christmases as they enjoyed their first white one in 128 years.
Merry Christmas, Al Gore.
The Obama administration is crediting its anti-recession stimulus plan with creating up to 50,000 jobs on dozens of wind farms, even though many of those wind farms were built before the stimulus money began to flow or even before President Barack Obama was inaugurated.
Ahhh. It would be funny if it wasn’t so sad.
From the Dailymail.co.uk:
And it claims livestock, such as cows and pigs, requires too much space and fodder to be an energy-efficient source of food for the everexpanding population. Ultimately, it argues, there’s simply not enough land for us all to eat roast beef.
And so the UN Food & Agriculture Organisation is urging us to try other alternatives, including insects. Yikes!
And for good measure a picture of a bug:
The UN reports that ‘as a food source, insects are highly nutritious’, and they require a mere fraction of the resources to rear, pound for pound, as more conventional meats.
Some species boast almost twice the protein of mainstream meat and fish, and in their larvae stage they tend to be rich in fat, vitamins and minerals.
They also go on, like most things that sound like a bad idea… to tell us other enlightened progressive societies that do it to help us feel like it is okay.
By contrast, in other cultures, they’re still prized as a delicacy. In Japan, they like to marinate the grubs of the longhorn beetle in soy sauce before grilling them. In Samoa, they feed them on coconut shavings for a few days, then roast them over charcoal,
wrapped in a banana leaf.
Thailand is thought to have 15,000 small farms raising crickets, and the South African mopane worm industry is worth $85 million. Locusts are also a popular snack there.
So, Japan… Yea, you can buy little girl’s used panties by vending machine there too, so should we emmulate that as well?
And come to think of it, I’ve herd of Samoa and Thailand being the targets of international aid, but never contributing to the world like the US with our medical advancements or the French with their… well, mayonnaise.
No, sorry. Japan, you can keep your little-girl used panty vending machiens… and your insect eating. I’m going to go find a steak.
Republished with permission from Ryan N. Maue’s 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update
Global TC Activity remains at 30-year lows at least — The last 24-months of ACE at 1090 represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009…Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cyclone ACE has collapsed in half. This continues the now 4-consecutive years global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of the global, yearly hurricane activity, the other 90% deserves attention and has been significantly depressed since 2007. See Figure below.
Northern Hemisphere year-to-date ACE is nearing 50% below normal. The Western North Pacific is at 17% of normal (or the past 30-year average).
August 8: Current 7-10 day forecast models see little if any tropical activity on the horizon.
Colin and Bonnie both go into the books as a couple of the weakest tropical cyclones on record. No storms were recorded in the Eastern Pacific during July!
August and September will have to be record activity for the hurricane forecasts to pan out in the North Atlantic. See discussion at Watts Up With That?
July 31: Current ACE for July in the Northern Hemisphere is 14.2 and consists of Alex, Chanson, Bonnie, and Chanthu. No ACE was recorded in the Eastern Pacific.
Note: Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone data is spotty prior to the introduction of reliable satellite monitoring, thus the ACE represented at the beginning of the 1980s is likely underestimated due to missing data. Thus, it is possible that the current global collapse in TC ACE is comparable to lows experienced prior to 30-years ago…
Climatological yearly ACE and HDAYS are based upon 1980-2009 values (last 30 years)
Daily Cumulative ACE file
[Month, Day, IO, EPAC, NATL, WPAC, NH]
2010 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones
Maximum Wind Speed & ACE per storm (ATCF operational intensity estimates)
Alex (85 ACE = 7.3725)
TD02 (30 ACE = 0.0)
Bonnie (whirl) (35 ACE = 0.49)
Colin (50* ACE = 2.27)
|Western North Pacific
01W (30 ACE = 0.0)
Omais (50 ACE = 2.0075)
Conson (75 ACE = 8.3225)
Chanthu (75 ACE = 3.5775)
|Northern Indian Ocean & Arabian Sea
Laila (65 ACE = 4.46)
Bandu (55 ACE = 2.39)
Phet (125 ACE = 14.16)
Agatha (40 ACE = 0.2825)
Blas (55 ACE = 2.715)
Celia (140 ACE = 25.4875 )
Darby (105 ACE = 10.3925)
Estelle (35 ACE = 0.125*)
The NASA GISS temperature maps may be over-reading, above the big vertical-component magnetic anomalies
This posting was re-published with permission from the NeuralNetWriter
By: Peter Ravenscroft
Geomag anomalies may cause the The GISTEMP maps from NASA to over-read
Text: The satellite temperature maps from NASA may all be nonsense. Here is why.
from Peter Ravenscroft, 20.12.09
No reliable global temperature maps at all?
First, Climategate is worse than we thought, as the data appears to have been deliberately skewed, in the standard global temperature dataset against which all the others we have are calibrated. Christopher Monckton has described the problem in detail here. So, as the satellite map are calibrated against the East Anglia CRU dataset, the world standard, the lurid colours of the planetary temperature hotspots are now suspect.
But we may have a worse problem than mere dishonesty in science and derivative error. We may have serious undetected error of an entirely different sort in the satellite readings.
Just have a look at the big brown patch on the map here:
NASA is saying that in March 2008, that entire region, in essence the whole of Siberia, was between 5 and 8.5 degrees C hotter in Mach 2008 than the average for their baseline period, 1950-1980.
Is this believable? The entire planet is in a huge flap because the world overall may have warmed by something under 1 C degree in a century. We have just all agreed, apparently, to try stop the temperature-tide from coming in, by pegging the rise at 2 degrees C., by some date, relative to the present. King Canute must be rolling about in glee in his grave, since his legendary strand- line stunt was to show his court sycophants that his power was in fact somewhat limited. So, if the temperature is up over 5 degrees in March (northern spring), relative to 30 to 60 year ago, why are there not endless reports of catastrophe from the steppes? Why are the yaks and the Mongols not fleeing west? Or south? Or to the the moon?
Maybe the map is gibberish, through no fault of anyone. And all the rest of them. I will ask James Hansen of the GISS, to give them a fair right of reply. He fields the questions on satellite temperature data, according to their website.
I am not saying that what follows is so, just that it seems very possible.
To start, the Goddard Institute of Space Science at NASA so distrusts its own satellite temperature data for Africa south of the equator that it has taken to blanking it all out. As per the map here.
Next, some information from a little-known place. The Hermanus Magnetic Observatory, is located in the delightful seaside resort of that name. Hermanus is not far from the south end of Africa, and I caught a mackerel in the harbour there, as a kid, fishing with my Dad. So I am sure on that point, at least. The HMO is responsible for monitoring the magnetic field changes for southern Africa and its surrounds, and for issuing warnings about problems that may arise for navigation systems, from those changes. Here is their website:
They have been at it since 1932, were originally in Cape Town, at the university, but they shifted along the coast to a magnetically quiet area when the electric trains went in. The HMO is news to me, I best admit. They do keep things quiet there, it seems.
They have said that the magnetic shifts associated with the South Atlantic Anomaly (the SAA), are damaging satellite instruments. They place the source of the shifts causing the SAA at 3,000 kms down, at the earth’s core-mantle boundary and consider they are part of the beginning of a magnetic pole reversal. In 2004 Dr Pieter Kotze of the HMO said the reversal is due anytime between tomorrow and 3,000 years from now. See here:
Something weird is going on below us
SUNDAY TIMES – Johannesburg, South Africa.
I have no problem at all with any of that, but I think one can perhaps refine the problem area, and that something of considerable import may follow.
Some NASA satellite temperature maps still show the region of intense warming in Angola, that GISS NASA now blanks out. See this one such map:
It is undoubtedly on the edge of the SAA, but it far more closely matches the change in the vertical or radial or z component of the magnetic fied, down at the core-mantle boundary. That is simply another way of observing the same overall thing, but perhaps it gives a sharper perspective.
The possibility, or perhaps better the likelihood is, that the satellite temperature instruments at least, have not been physically damaged, but are now seriously over-reading, as they pass over the vertical mag field anomaly below northern Angola. The centre and the location and shape of at least part of the northern edge of the two anomalies there, temperature and deep magnetics, match closely, on some maps at least.
Conversely, the SAA is large, and we do not have matching temperature anomaly over all of it, as far as I can see.
So, it may be that the temperature sensors in the satellites are particularly susceptible to changes in the Z component of the magnetic field below. I should here insert that I know absolutely nothing of how those sensors work, but will try find out next, on the Internet. I am merely going by what the HMO is saying – present magnetic shifts are damaging some satellite instruments.
And here comes the larger problem.
As I have a few times published on ABC Pool, there is also a very close correlation between the other three of the world’s four largest temperature and deep magnetic anomalies – those, in size order, being Siberia north of Lake Baikal, Canada west of Hudson Bay and the Antarctic Peninsula and the seas to its west. Perhaps PTMA1, 2 and 3 with Angola as PTMA4, would save dots in hyperspace and time, where “PTMA” stands for Paired Temperature and Magnetic Anomalies) But these, regrettably, just having got their own acronyms, an important step up in the class and hierarchical struggles that beset physical phenomena, may now turn out to be mere instrument errors.
In other words, Siberia and Canada and the Antarctic Peninsula may not have warmed up nearly as much as the satellite maps say they have, or in fact at all. We now should be very unsure.
And this is a damn nuisance to me, if correct, as I have just almost finished a 470-page book that assumed they were real and were controlling the climate. So I hope the instrument are reading reality, but now have serious doubts. It’s called science, I believe. Admit you may have screwed up, and don’t try hide the decline of your model.
This is as big a problem for the carbonists as for me, unless they can show that the real temperature picture matches where the 500 AQUA satellite AIRS map show the carbon dioxide is really coming from. And then, they will have an even larger problem, since the CO2 is very clearly coming from the seas and the deep sedimentary basis, and not from our cities.
Their best hope is that the AIRS readings are gibberish too.
I have emailed Pieter Kotze to see what he has to say, if he cares to, but it is now Christmas. Probably the Copenhagen Fiasco was enough for all of us for one week.
Maybe the magnetic decline will not matter a jot for centuries – until the mag poles flip and melts the icecaps. Then you can moor your dingy to the sharp bit on top of the Sydney Opera House, to catch some of the fine parrotfish living on the coral on the roofs below.
Time to look at the thermometer on the wall at home a bit more closely? And at the plants outside, to see what they think about it all?
Merry Christmas all. Including to many friends out in the Pacific Islands. Maybe the climate is just fine, this Christmas. And will be for the rest of your life. Just be nice to the parrotfish, as they are our brothers and sisters.
Closeburn, Queensland, 20 December, 2009.
PS. The carbonists leaving Copenhagen today are having their Hamlet moment, and are trying to get us all to see things their way. “To be or not to be?”, that is their gloomy question, as per that earlier prince of Copenhagen. Doom is upon us, they explain sourly, because we did not agree to trash the world economy and starve billions, to save coral atolls that all coped perfectly well with huge rises in sea level when the last glacial went away. But then, the coral was healthy, because
the parrotfish had not all been eaten. The parrotfish eat the algae that overwhelm the coral when they are all eaten. Etc. And, see Charlie Darwin’s book on coral reefs. They build up, as their volcanic bedrock bases sink down. Thousands of feet. Quite happily. First week geology.